Analysis
THE CRISIS IN TIMOR-LESTE: IS THERE A PATTERN?
by Dr Dennis Shoesmith, dennis.shoesmith@cdu.edu.au
Faculty of Law, Business and Arts, Charles Darwin University. Dr Shoesmith's
current research interests are the forthcoming national elections in East
Timor and capacity-building in social research in East Timor
States riven by conflict must be understood in terms of their
own, unique histories. At the same time, there are patterns of state failure
and conflict that can help clarify why states collapse into violence and anarchy.
The crisis in Timor-Leste fits a pattern of renewed conflict in post-conflict
states.
A recent study of post-conflict risk (Collier, Hoeffler and
Södebom) provides an excellent comparative analysis. Of a sample of 68
post-conflict states, 31 reverted to war, an average risk of 46 per cent.
Given that Timor-Leste at independence had suffered both a civil war from
1975 and major violence and destruction in 1999, by 2002 the level of risk
of further conflict was probably even higher than this.
With this legacy of violence, Timor-Leste displays the common
variables that, according to Collier et al, make rebellion feasible: a very
low per capita income, a stagnant economy, and (recently) large exports of
natural resources. They single out Timor-Leste as in ‘a much more alarming
situation than Bosnia [was], all things being equal’.
It is the feasibility of rebellion, rather than the motivation
of the political actors, they argue, that provokes civil wars: ‘where
insurrection is feasible, it will occur’. In this sense, the violence
in Timor-Leste was the result of various groups?rebellious soldiers, ‘easterners’
and ‘westerners’, criminal gangs?taking opportunistic advantage
of the collapse of state authority.
They claim that democratic post-conflict states have double
the risk of autocratic states of experiencing further major conflict. According
to this argument, had the Fretilin leadership imposed an autocratic, one-party
regime, they would have diminished the likelihood of open conflict.
While post-conflict elections reduce the risk of violence
in the election year, they actually increase the risk in the following year.
Elections in Timor-Leste are scheduled for 2007. If the pattern holds, 2008
could be a very dangerous year.
The Fretilin government has spent a relatively high amount
on security, confirming another variable. Heavy military spending in post-conflict
states increases rather than decreases risk of conflict. Because it could
not rely on the loyalty of the army, the government created a 3,500 strong
police force, arming it with serious military hardware. Rebellion and violence
between army and police provoked the wider conflicts of May-June.
Clearly the United Nations Transitional Administration in
East Timor (UNTAET) was in place for far too short a time. The comparative
data suggests risk of serious conflict remains high for the first four to
six years after the initial conflict. Sukehiro Hasegawa, the present Special
Representative of the UN Secretary-General in Dili,
concedes that the UN left East Timor when the security situation remained
‘fragile and fluid’.
In the long-term only economic recovery and growth will dramatically
reduce risk of further major conflict. The good news is that Timor-Leste has
the natural resources to achieve this, but only if the oil and gas revenues
are managed intelligently.
Links:
AUSTRALIA'S VIETNAM DECISION AND LESSONS ON GOING TO WAR
by Garry Woodard, Senior Fellow in Political Science,
University of Melbourne, former senior diplomat and author of Asian Alternatives:
Australia's Vietnam Decision and Lessons on Going to War, Melbourne University
Press http://www.mup.unimelb.edu.au/ebooks/0-522-85143-6/index.html
Writing in 2002-03 of Australia’s involvement in the
Vietnam war, I was struck by the parallels with Australia joining the ‘coalition
of the willing’ in Iraq. Both operations revealed a conservative mindset
of astonishing durability. I found little evidence that the lessons of Australia’s
flawed involvement in Vietnam had been learnt and saw little prospect of the
conflict in Iraq bringing any advantage to Australian interests.
Under a strong Foreign Minister, however things could be
different, as was evident during Garfield Barwick’s term as External
Affairs Minister from December 1961 to April 1964. Barwick based his foreign
policy on the convictions that:
• Australia should give priority to its geographic environment, recognising
that its long-term future lay in Asia and pursuing regional understanding
and dialogue undeterred by accusations of ‘appeasement’
• it should be cautious about resorting to force especially in Vietnam
and oppose using nuclear weapons
• if it had to fight it should seek respectable Asian support
• it should be a forthright and confident partner and avoid being perceived
as America’s deputy sheriff.
Barwick was the most powerful Australian foreign minister
in the last half century. His cooperation with his officials represented the
Westminster ideal and best practice in foreign policy.
If Barwick had remained, as he wished, Foreign Minister for
another year before becoming Chief Justice, Australia would not have rushed
into combat in Vietnam. This ‘counterfactual’ rests on more solid
reasoning than the popular hypothesis that if Oswald had missed, John F Kennedy
would have kept the United States out of war in Vietnam.
The decision to join the Vietnam war was taken in December
1964, earlier than usually thought, and reveals the Prime Minister’s
dominant influence. Menzies believed that ‘everything we put beside
the Americans is good in the common interest’. In contrast, another
strong anti-Communist, Lee Kuan Yew, opined that ‘the price [for American
protection] is really rising’. Neither Singapore nor any other Asian
country put troops into Vietnam until the US agreed to subsidise them.
Before the secret December decision, Cabinet sought only
military advice; External Affairs officials were frozen out. They would have
urged caution and argued that Australia’s highest priority was closer
to home, dealing militarily and diplomatically with Sukarno’s expansionist
Indonesia. Vietnam was not ‘the diplomats’ war’, as often
alleged, but war made by politicians, abetted by generals.
Links:
Profile
This month we feature the Asia-Pacific editor of The
Sydney Morning Herald, Hamish Mcdonald (hmcdonald@smh.com.au)
who has spent over 20 years of his career in journalism working in Asia.
Q: When did you become interested in studying
Asia and why?
A: My parents had series of books on the civilizations of
the world (I don’t know where they are now), and the volumes on China
and India always fascinated me. Then on one of my father’s postings
for the old Bank of NSW, we stayed in a boarding house in Wellington (NZ)
where some Indonesian students were also lodged. They were very kind to us
kids, and we thought it very glam when they donned national costume. Not long
after, Konfrontasi and the 1965 coup were a news backdrop to my teenage years.
Victoria University, where I started, didn’t offer Asian languages then,
so I started out in French and stuck with it. But later, working in the Press
Gallery, I started studying Indonesian part time at ANU. Then Indonesian led
me on to Japan, India, China.
Q: What are your current preoccupations?
A: Having just come back from reporting in China, and with
six years in India earlier, I’m fascinated with the SWOT analysis going
on in the academic-media scene about the two Asian giants and their prospects.
I find myself mentally barracking for India (and its democracy and pluralism)
but you have to admit the Chinese have got their act together.
Q: How do these fit into the contemporary
scene?
A: Nothing could be more relevant to people living in an
advanced industrial economy. How we fit into the economies of China and India
will determine how prosperous we are by mid-century, who wins and who loses,
what kind of society we will have.
Q: What are your hopes for Asian studies
in Australia?
A: I hope we can decisively shrug off the monoglot legacy
of our British heritage, and not leave the foreign languages to the kids of
new migrants. I would like all kids in Australian primary schools to learn
Indonesian rather than dabble around with a period a week of Italian or whatever.
It’s an accessible language, and mostly likely to be used on the first
overseas travel by young people. Why not seek a rotating pool of teachers
from Indonesia on two or three year visas? Then we need to introduce large
numbers of high school students to Chinese, Japanese, Hindi/Urdu, and Arabic.
We should make use of the cultural/soft diplomacy starting in Asia, for example
via the Confucius Institutes that Beijing is subsidising (see http://english.hanban.edu.cn/market/HanBanE/412360.htm).
Graduate of the month
Valerie Shavgarova valerie.shavgarova@anu.edu.au
is the person who makes sure you receive Asian Currents each month. She does
so in her capacity as the website/resources manager at the International Centre
of Excellence in Asia Pacific (http://iceaps.anu.edu.au).
ICEAPS is a Federal Government initiative which aims to raise the profile
of Asia-Pacific Studies through a program of collaborative activities, including
with the ASAA. It sponsors Asian Currents.
Valerie grew up in Far East Russia. She studied at the University of Culture
and Art in Khabarovsk and in 1996 completed a Masters of Business Management.
With this qualification she went to work for a recruitment company in Qingdao
in northeast China. China was not entirely foreign to her: she studied Chinese
at high school and had been over the border to Harbin for sightseeing trips.
Valerie loved her time in Qingdao. The job was challenging:
organising the recruitment of Russian workers for the hospitality industry,
dealing with government departments, arranging visas, sorting out accommodation,
and finding places of work. Living in Qingdao was also good. The people were
very friendly; the beach was close by and the shopping was great.
The Chinese company Valerie worked for sponsored her to study
Chinese at Guangbo Xueyuan, the Beijing Film and Television School. She found
learning Chinese difficult yet fascinating, and a way to improve her cross-cultural
understanding and tolerance. Valerie is now a corresponding member of the
China Studies Association of Australia, an affiliate of the ASAA (http://www.csaa.org.au/council.html)
Valerie came to Australia in 1999 and resumed her study,
this time doing a diploma in Human Resources and Business Management at the
Canberra Institute of Technology. She also began working as a recruitment
officer at the Australian National University and in 2003 entered the University’s
graduate recruitment program. As well as her present job at ICEAPS she is
studying web development, believing it is important to keep up with the latest
trends in this fast-changing field.
Website of the month
http://tinyurl.com/msdag
The Voice of Chinese Network has launched a website offering free Mandarin
lessons and materials to promote the study and use of the language abroad.
The site includes audio-visual presentations, interactive exercises and advice
for teachers of Mandarin, with photographs and descriptions of cultural icons
such as the Great Wall, kung fu actor Jackie Chan and basketball star Yao
Ming. According to the Chinese Ministry of Education, more than 30 million
people are now learning Chinese as a foreign language and more than 2500 universities
in 100 countries offer Chinese courses.
Recent article of interest
Former Malaysian Prime Minister, Mahathir Mohamad, has been
levelling public criticism at the Malaysian government ever since leaving
office. Yang Razali Kassim, a senior fellow with the Institute of Defence
and Strategic Studies at Nanyang Technological University asks what will be
the long-term impact for Malaysian politics? Given the present incumbent’s
inclination to avoid a destructive collision, he concludes that for the time
being tensions in UMNO can be contained. See Bend it Like Bamboo http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=071206A
Did you know?
There are two new books out in the ASAA’s Southeast
Asia Publication Series (SEAPS) edited by Professor Howard Dick (University
of Melbourne):
Other Malays: Nationalism and Cosmopolitanism in
the Modern Malay World by Joel S. Kahn, which examines the powerful
linkages between ethnicity, religious reform, identity and nationalism in
multi-ethnic Southeast Asia. Click
on this link and you get 20% off the regular price. http://www.unireps.com.au/isbn/9971693348specd.htm
Anti-Chinese Violence in Indonesia, 1996-1999
by Jemma Purdey which analyses the main incidents of violence during the transitional
period between 1996 and 1999 and the unprecedented process of national reflection
that followed.
Click on this link and you get 20% off the regular price.
http://www.unireps.com.au/isbn/9971693321specd.htm
Diary dates
ASIA ON MY MIND, 26 July 2006, Sydney. Michael
L’Estrange, Secretary of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade
will speak at a dinner organised by the Asia Society at the Australian Club,
165 Macquarie Street. For details contact Daphanie Teo, daphaniet@asiasoc.org.au
BORNEO IN THE NEW CENTURY, 31 July and 1 August 2006,
Kuching Sarawak. Papers are invited for the Eighth Biennial Conference
of the Borneo Research Council (BRC). These should present original research
in any field relating to Sabah, Brunei, Sarawak, Kalimantan and its surrounding
region. Abstracts, no longer than 100 words, must be submitted by email before
1 May to: Jchin@ieas.unimas.my or James.chin@lycos.com
For more details, see: www.borneoresearchcouncil.org
'PUNAKAWAN QUARTET' concert, 1 August, Sydney.
Indonesian pianist, Jaya Suprana, will lead this free concert of Sufi music
organised by the Indonesian Department of New South Wales University in cooperation
with the Indonesian Consulate General in Sydney. 6pm to 8pm, Clancy Auditorium,
UNSW (entry via Gate 9, High Street, Kensington)
Enquiries: Rochayah on 9385 2186; Sofia Sudarma/Yoen Yahya
on 9344 9933
ENGAGING WITH INDIA—A NEW MODEL, 3 August,
Melbourne. Professor Richard Larkins, Vice Chancellor and President
of Monash University will speak at the Asia Society’s CEA Asia Update
Luncheon. For details contact Daphanie Teo, daphaniet@asiasoc.org.au
ICT IN ASIA AND AUSTRALIA: UNDERSTANDING TRENDS AND
OPPORTUNITIES, 1 August, Melbourne. A half day event sponsored by
Asialink at the University of Melbourne. See www.asialink.unimelb.edu.au
for full program and registration details
RECONCILIATION BETWEEN JAPAN AND CHINA, workshop,
August, Canberra. In August 2006, the Department of International
Relations at the Australian National University will host a workshop as the
culmination of online discussion about the best ways to encourage reconciliation
between Japan and China. The objective is to produce concrete and realistic
policy proposals for enhancing security cooperation between the two Asian
powers, especially with respect to their participation in the Six Party Talks
on the North Korean nuclear issue and in the potential East Asian Community.
See www.china-japan-reconciliation.blogspot.com
ASIA-PACIFIC MISSIONARIES: AT HOME AND ABROAD, 2nd
biennial conference, 25-27 August 2006, Canberra. The conference
will be held at the Coombs Lecture Theatre, Australian National University,
Contact: Dr Ian Welch, ian.welch@anu.edu.au
DEMOCRACY AND THE PROMISE OF GOOD GOVERNANCE, 22-23
September, Canberra. The 24th annual Indonesia Update conference
will be held at the Coombs Lecture Theatre, Australian National University.
The Update is free but registration is required. For details see http://rspas.anu.edu.au/economics/ip/IU06/
TRANSNATIONAL CRIME IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION,
workshop, 6 October, Sydney. The Centre for Policing, Intelligence
and Counter Terrorism (PICT) at Macquarie University is holding a one-day
course to consider the nature of transnational crime in the Asia-Pacific from
the perspective of the region's rapidly changing role in the global economy.
Cost: $650+GST. (Student discount available). For further information, contact:
Marijana Wright: (02) 9850 4712; mwright@access.mq.edu.au
CELEBRATE AUSTRALIA, AUSTRALIAN STYLE in Shanghai,
21-28 October. Set at Shanghai's famous lifestyle, entertainment
and boutique retail venue Xintiandi, Celebrate Australia will feature a week
long program of unique activities and promotions spotlighting the finer side
of Australian expertise, lifestyle and innovation. The week coincides with
several other high profile events in Shanghai, including the Australia China
Business Council’s 2nd Forum in Shanghai on 25 October and the Australian
Ballet performing 'Swan Lake' from 27-30 October. Australian companies are
invited to apply to participate in this celebration by registering by 11 August.
See specific mission service packages provided by Austrade: http://www.austrade.gov.au/corporate/layout/0,,0_S1-1_CORPXID0040-2_-3_PWB110830402-4_-5_-6_-7_,00.html
or contact
julie-anne.nichols@austrade.gov.au
at the Austrade mission in Shanghai.
THIRD WORLD CONGRESS OF KOREAN STUDIES, 27-30 October
2006, Jejudo island, South Korea. The theme of the largest Korean
studies conference in the world is 'Cultural Interaction with Korea: From
Silk Road to Korean Wave'. For further information, see http://www.aks.ac.kr/eng_home
ASIA-PACIFIC TRIENNIAL OF CONTEMPORARY ART, December
2006, Brisbane. The Asia-Pacific Triennial of Contemporary Art (APT)
will be the opening exhibition at the new Queensland Gallery of Modern Art.
APT 2006 will present the work of over 30 artists from Asia, Australia and
the Pacific. It will feature a performance and cinema program, as well as
a children’s festival. See http://www.qag.qld.gov.au/apt
MEDIA: POLICIES, CULTURES AND FUTURES IN THE ASIA
PACIFIC REGION, 27-29 November, Perth. Call
for papers: deadline 31 July 2006 The organisers of the 2006
Signature Event conference for the Australia Research Council's Asia Pacific
Futures Research Network (APFRN), organised by the Media-Asia Research Group
welcome proposals for individual papers as well as workshops and panels from
government, industry and community groups in addition to the academic community.
See http://www.MediaAsiaConference.humanities.curtin.edu.au.
A limited number of scholarships are available (deadline 30 June).
THE AOTEAROA NEW ZEALAND INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
STUDIES NETWORK CONFERENCE 30 November to 2 December 2006, Dunedin.
The conference is entitled ‘Southern Perspectives on Development: Dialogue
or Division?’ is to be held at the University of Otago, Further information
is available from http://www.devnet.org.nz
or contact devnet2006@geography.otago.ac.nz
WORLD WITHOUT WALLS: 21st Century Perspectives on
East and West, 3-7 December 2006, Sydney. The Oriental Society of
Australia (OSA) is holding a fiftieth anniversary, international conference
from 3-7 December. The conference title ‘World Without Walls’
reflects the belief of the conference organisers that the study of humanities,
the arts and social sciences without Asia is incomplete. The conference is
designed to break down traditional geographic country-based studies by organising
panel discussions thematically, and bringing together scholars from different
backgrounds to discuss common problems. University of Sydney; COST: $380 per
person ($300 Early Bird Registration) ENQUIRIES: OSA2006 Conference Committee,
OSA2006@arts.usyd.edu.au. See
http://www.arts.usyd.edu.au/conference/OSA2006
You are welcome to advertise Asia-related events in this
space. Send details to: fbeddie@ozemail.com.au.
Feedback
What would be useful for you? Human interest stories, profiles
of successful graduates of Asian studies, more news about what's on, moderated
discussions on topical issues? Send your ideas to fbeddie@ozemail.com.au
About the ASAA
The Asian Studies Association of Australia (ASAA) promotes
the study of Asian languages, societies, cultures, and politics in Australia,
supports teaching and research in Asian studies and works towards an understanding
of Asia in the community at large. It publishes the Asian Studies Review journal
and holds a biennial conference.
The ASAA believes there is an urgent need to develop a strategy to preserve,
renew and extend Australian expertise about Asia. It has called on the government
to show national leadership in the promotion of Australia’s Asia knowledge
and skills. See Maximizing Australia's Asia Knowledge Repositioning and Renewal
of a National Asset http://coombs.anu.edu.au/SpecialProj/ASAA/asia-knowledge-book-v70.pdf
Asian Currentsis published by the
Asian Studies Association of Australia (ASAA) http://coombs.anu.edu.au/ASAA/
thanks to a grant from the International Centre of Excellence for Asia Pacific
Studies (ICEAPS) http://iceaps.anu.edu.au.
It is edited by Francesca Beddie. The editorial board consists of Robert Cribb,
ASAA President, Michele Ford, ASAA Secretary, Mina Roces, ASAA Publications
officer, Tamara Jacka, ASAA Council member.
